On Sept. 23, following a conversation with Ukraine’s President Zelensky on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly gathering, Trump posted a message on Truth Social that made headlines in mainstream and alternative media alike. It was widely seen as an almost unprecedented about-face, an abrupt reversal of his rapprochement with Putin following their mid-August meeting in Alaska.
In his post, Trump wrote that Ukraine could win back all the territory it had lost to Russia during the war. He called Russia a “paper tiger.” And he encouraged NATO to continue fighting Russia by giving additional weapons to Ukraine, repeating his willingness to sell weapons to Europe to help them further arm Ukraine. Trump later was seen talking to French President Macron, in a conversation that repeated much of what he’d written in his post.
But was Trump, who has signaled a willingness to meet with Xi as well as with Putin, really abandoning his recent attempt to normalize relations with Russia? And given the unshakeable ties between China and Russia—most recently seen in the signing of the Siberia 2 pipeline agreement—did it signal that the U.S. has decided it wants no part of any new world order engineered by an ascendant Global South, preferring to go it alone, or, more precisely, in a bloc with allies such as the EU, Australia, Mexico, South Korea, and Japan? Our interpretation of Trump’s behavior is exactly the opposite.
Our take, which we know will be controversial, is that Trump was signaling to Putin that he needed to take decisive military action in Ukraine to end the war quickly and with a bang—essentially goading him to do so. It could come from Russia employing its Oreshnik missile or the rumored and even more powerful successor, Orsini. (Actual or even claimed intervention by the E.U. in Moldova’s parliamentary elections on September 28 could give Russia a convenient pretext to take action.) The devastation from these missiles even when armed with conventional weapons would make it crystal clear that fighting Russia is a suicide mission, showing that virtually all of NATO’s European bases could be destroyed within hours or less.
Why on earth would Trump want to encourage this? Because of the hope that the sight of the devastation from these missiles, which our weapons can’t match or defend against, would bring the Deep State to its senses. And the Deep State is the biggest obstacle to the U.S. moving to a cooperative stance with the Global South, without which we face a very grim future.
As we’ve discussed before, within a short time the U.S. will lack adequate access to the natural resources needed to maintain an advanced economy, not to mention shortages here of skilled labor. According to the Department of the Interior, we are deeply dependent on foreign sources for somewhere between 70% to 90% of critical natural resources. Absent ample supplies of essential elements, we could face catastrophic economic scenarios, ranging from hyperinflation to depression to a combination of both.
Whatever you may think of Trump, we think he is better informed than most give him credit for and wants to mitigate the real risk of an unprecedented economic catastrophe, or even worse. The Deep State, which includes intelligence agencies and major donors on behalf of Israel, is at odds with Trump’s instincts here. We don’t know how much pressure Trump is under to take actions that could result in a major rupture with the Global South. For example, many, especially in the alternative media, argue that another war with Iran is a near certainty. Such a war could have horrifying consequences. It’s not farfetched to envision outcomes including the destruction of Israel; the launching of nuclear weapons; and the involvement of many states both in the Middle East and beyond.
This has left Trump with the urgent necessity of engineering a totally compelling case for rapprochement with the Global South. Worth mentioning is that the Global South seems willing. A headline story on Sept. 24 in the China Daily reports on a forthcoming visit by U.S. lawmakers to Beijing and of expanding dialogue between the U.S. and China. But any number of events could, in a heartbeat, crush this budding hope for a peaceful and prosperous world. Right now, it’s not an exaggeration to say that the most important war being waged isn’t between Ukraine and Russia but within warring factions within the U.S., and it’s also no exaggeration to say our future hangs in the balance.
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