A number of recent events—including Russia’s launching of an Oreshnik missile in western Ukraine and some of the fiercest riots in many years within Iran—may, understandably, have left you thinking the world has become an ever more dangerous place. I can’t claim to have an inside scoop on any of these events. But what I can do is to point out some key interconnections among them. Without tying events together, it’s impossible to get a handle on the current reality, one that is indisputably risky but that at the same time may provide a pathway to that more cooperative world that I’ve been proselytizing for.
Cold War-esque style warfare
I’ll start with the evening of January 9, when Russia launched what most regard as the world’s most powerful tactical hypersonic missile into western Ukraine. One key aspect of the strike was its location, near Ukraine’s border with Poland. It’s clear the intent was not just to damage Ukraine but also to send a message to Europe and NATO. A second key point is that according to many reports, the U.S. was given at least three hours’ advance notice of the strike. This strongly suggests that Putin and Trump are working together far more closely than, say, Trump and Europe. That may not seem surprising, given Trump’s dismissive attitude toward Europe. But still, NATO’s most important member remains the U.S., and historically, a prime purpose of NATO has been to protect Europe against the Soviet Union during the Cold War era and more recently against Russia.
In addition, while evidence is inconclusive, it seems possible that this is not the same version of the Oreshnik that Russia first tested a year ago when it destroyed a massive missile plant in Ukraine. This appears to be a more powerful version. One reason for suspecting this is the uncertainty over the exact location of the strike. Initially it was thought to have targeted a massive reserve of natural gas, but that possibility was rejected, since striking the reserve would have required a weapon able to penetrate many meters underground—something well beyond the capabilities of the missile tested at the end of 2024. But now that possibility can’t be ruled out, given that since the strike, gas supplies have grown more sporadic.
A second relevant factor is that Belarus, perhaps the most loyal of the Soviet republics during the era of the Soviet Union that began with Lenin and ended with Gorbachev, recently was armed with the Oreshnik. Regardless of how staunch an ally Belarus is, it still would be very unusual to give another country your best armament. My best guess is that Belarus received last year’s version. (And for that matter, if the rumors are true, Venezuela has it as well; more on that below.) Russian blogs also have reported that Russia will soon introduce additional new and much more powerful weapons. We may have witnessed just one of many.
A final point is that following the first Oreshnik test, weapons expert Ted Postal of MIT suggested that Putin—who, as he noted, rarely knowingly exaggerates—had overstated the power of the original version, most likely because his advisors had misled him. In his recent comments, Putin—who noted that the combined impact of two Oreshniks would be roughly equivalent to that of a nuclear missile, minus the fallout—is pointing to a weapon considerably more powerful than the first. On the grounds of once burned, twice shy, I expect he would have taken extra care to validate this assessment.
Double-take on Venezuela
Now for events in Venezuela, and then to something even more vexing and unknown, Iran. We have little to add to our recent take on Venezuela. We see Trump as continuing to search for ways to gain agency along with acquiring natural resources, essential to giving our weakest link, a bankrupt government, credibility. Sensibly, YouTubers have dropped the idiotic chatter about China’s being embarrassed. While events and scenarios can change quickly, signs continue to suggest that China, the U.S., and Russia will work together to develop Venezuela’s natural resources. Signs also are strong that this will be done in concert with Venezuela’s current government or one very similar to it.
In other words, the odds have lessened that we will take over the country. Given the likelihood that Russia currently possesses a more powerful version of the original Oreshnik, you might have to say the odds have increased that the current Venezuelan government does have at least one of the original versions of the Oreshnik. But the odds of using that missile against the $13 billion Gerald Ford, the world’s largest aircraft carrier, have gone down. It likely would happen only if the neocons and others become more aggressive in forcing Trump’s hand or if (keep in mind that we are far from being card-carrying members of a Trump fan club) Trump got too big for his britches and needed a reminder that the desired outcome is a tripartite coalition aiming for worldwide growth, not the reestablishment of American exceptionalism.
There’s an aside I’d like to share. It turns out that a big fan of Trump, who has visited him at both the White House and Mar-a-Lago, is Louis Prevost. Never heard of him? That’s not surprising, unless you are a reader of the Catholic Herald or happened to see an editorial in Sunday’s New York Times. Provost not only is a big Trump fan, he’s also the brother of the current Pope. I am not noting this because of an argument I made in a previous blog that Trump has strong religious beliefs. Rather, I wanted to point out what Pope Leo said when Trump seized Maduro. Rather than commenting on removing a thug who has destroyed the living standards of Venezuelans, he simply offered a plea that Trump do something that Maduro had never cared about, helping to maintain the sovereignty of a beaten and battered populace. My feeling is that Trump will listen. No one would argue that Trump’s action was not a violation of international law. But only on YouTube as well as on similar media outlets, and many corridors in Washington, would you find arguments that an action in which few are hurt and potentially a whole nation is given a new lease on life is trumped by a technical violation of international law—especially since the ousted Maduro wasn’t legitimately reelected and the existing Venezuelan government remains in place with Maduro’s V.P. assuming the role of president.
Iranian Regime Power Grabs
And finally, Iran. The recent protests, at least at first glance, had the feel of the CIA up to its usual mischief, trying to stir up trouble in the hope of achieving regime change. While I would not be surprised to find three-letter agencies involved, it turns out there may be a lot more to it, which I will be following closely in the coming days and weeks. Under Iran’s current leadership, living standards for the typical Iranian have been collapsing. The number that stands out is inflation close to 50%. What also stands out is that both Russia and China have offered to help the Iranians, and both offers have been rejected. One YouTuber cited historical enmities as a reason. I don’t buy that. Both countries have tremendous leverage over Iran. I was a little surprised that neither China nor Russia pushed the issue, since as I have pointed out before, Iran administers key water and land trade routes. While I would not bet the house, I would not be surprised if the two powerful allies might also be hoping for a new Iranian government. After all, an economically strong Iran could be a good thing for BRICS and a good thing for the world.
Before you say neither of these rivals would give the U.S. a free pass to seize power in Iran, the answer is that that’s not what they’d be doing. Think of Oreshnik, think of China’s lead of at least four years in military technology, think of a recent article in Nature and a report from Australia that show China with a research lead in 66 critical technologies compared to seven or so for the U.S. And then give at least a passing thought to whom the Chinese fear more, President Trump or—for lack of a better word, the psychotics—who are trying to limit his agency.
I’ll have more to say on all these areas in coming blogs. For now, forgive my optimism, but I am sick and tired of the relentless pessimism. America is not going to return to its former greatness overnight, and maybe not even for a decade or generation. But I have not given up hope that our progeny could end up living in a country that resembles the nation that once set the standard for greatness.
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