Defying the Market
Defying the Market
In the world of technology, one of the best-known maxims is Moore’s Law, a 1965 prediction by the cofounder of Intel, which states that computer chips will double in speed and power every 18 months. For many, Moore’s Law has come to symbolize the idea that all aspects of technology–from medicine to weather prediction–will continue to move forward at the startling rates we’ve grown used to. In Defying the Market, investment guru Dr. Stephen Leeb presents a different interpretation. In Defying The Market, Dr. Stephen Leeb notes that people back in the 1960s continued smoking, even when they knew it would make them sick, because they felt sure science would find a cure for cancer by the time they got it. As we all know, the cure hasn’t been found, and Dr. Leeb feels that most technological innovation has in fact ground to a halt. Science, he argues, is limited by the fact it depends on computers to make new discoveries. But we can’t really make computers any smarter–only cheaper and faster. In addition to a technological slowdown, Dr. Stephen Leeb also sees an unabating demand for worldwide economic growth. Put these two phenomena together, and you’ve got inflation, which is not entirely bad news for investors. He predicts that oil and gold stocks will rise from the modest positions they’ve held in the low-inflation ’90s; that computer stocks like Dell and Gateway will falter because, as prices rise, users won’t feel a need to pay for incremental improvements in speed and whiz-bangery; and that while only the largest tech companies–such as Microsoft and Cisco–will continue to profit, food companies such as Pioneer Hi-Bred and tractor maker Deere Co. are better bets.
AUTHOR…INVESTMENT ADVISER…MONEY MANAGER
Stephen Leeb is a prolific author, investment adviser, and money manager who has been analyzing financial markets for more than 40 years. He is known for his prescience in connecting the dots among hidden or overlooked trends – macroeconomic, scientific, and geopolitical – and accurately describing the investment implications, often going against the conventional wisdom. He is the author of nine books on investing and geopolitical trends including his most recent book, China’s Rise and the New Age of Gold: How Investors Can Profit from a Changing World (2020, McGraw-Hill Education). He is founder and editor of the award-winning investment letter The Complete Investor, published by Capitol Information Group, a Washington, D.C.-based financial publisher. Stephen is chief investment officer of his own wealth management firm based in New York City.